Get ready for an intense and unpredictable finale to the Premier Division season! With so much still undecided, it's a thrilling race to the finish line. The fate of European spots and the relegation battle hang in the balance, leaving fans on the edge of their seats.
As the final week kicks off, eight out of the ten teams have a stake in the outcome. Shamrock Rovers have already clinched the title, while Cork City's fate was sealed earlier. But here's where it gets controversial: the final European spot and the relegation play-off are anyone's game, with an incredibly tight finish.
Three teams are tied for fourth place, and another trio is locked in a battle for ninth. Both these crucial positions will be decided on the last day of the season. And this is the part most people miss: there's an intriguing side plot involving Derry and Shelbourne, who have already secured their spots in the Conference League qualifiers next year. But they're not done yet; they still have a shot at the Europa League!
Let's dive into the possibilities and what each team needs to achieve their European dreams.
2nd Place: Europa League or Conference League?
A live scenario is unfolding where the runners-up could secure a Europa League qualification spot instead of the Conference League. If Shamrock Rovers win the FAI Cup, the Europa spot will move to the league due to their Champions League qualification. This is a huge benefit, as losing a Europa League tie still offers a chance to enter the Conference League and potentially reach the league phase.
In terms of prize money, the Europa League offers a minimum of €700,000, compared to €350,000 for the Conference. Derry City can secure second place with a win or by matching Shelbourne's result against St Patrick's Athletic. With similar goal differences, Shels could overtake Derry with a two-goal victory if Derry only manages a draw. While there's no major pressure, the opportunity to enter the Europa League is a massive incentive.
4th Place: Conference League Qualifying Spot?
Once again, the FAI Cup final holds the key. St Patrick's Athletic, Bohemians, and Drogheda United are all in the running for fourth place. If the Hoops claim a double, it will provide a Conference League qualifying spot. All three teams dropped points over the weekend, despite holding winning positions. The biggest collapse came from Bohs, who let a two-goal lead slip against Shels, causing angry scenes at Dalymount Park.
The race for fourth is intriguing, as two of the contenders will face off when the Gypsies travel to Drogheda. St Pat's, who felt their chance may have slipped away after a home draw, now hold fourth spot going into the final day. The Saints know a win or a draw will secure fourth place, as they hold a four-goal advantage over Bohs and a seven-goal lead over Drogheda.
To simplify:
- St Pat's will finish fourth with a win or if both matches end in a draw.
- Drogheda or Bohemians will finish fourth if they win and St Pat's fail to win.
- Bohemians will finish fourth if they draw and St Pat's lose.
The winning team will then turn their attention to cheering on Shamrock Rovers at the Aviva Stadium on November 9th. However, if Cork City pulls off an upset, all bets are off.
9th Place: The Relegation Play-off
Think the battle for fourth is dramatic? Hold onto your seats, because the fight for ninth is even more intense. Cork City is already relegated, and the team finishing above them will face a First Division side in the promotion/relegation play-off on November 7th.
Waterford, Sligo Rovers, and Galway United are all in danger. Two of these teams will face off as Waterford hosts Galway. Sligo, meanwhile, travels to Shamrock Rovers, a venue where they've only won once in the last decade. If Sligo loses, both Waterford and Galway would be safe with a draw in their fixture. The situation becomes even more intriguing if Sligo falls behind in Tallaght, especially if they're trailing by a couple of goals.
The Blues currently have the worst goal difference, but their six-goal lead over Sligo could be overcome if John Russell's side suffers a heavy loss to the Hoops. The only guarantee is that Waterford cannot afford to lose to Galway. A loss would send the Blues to the play-off due to goal difference.
If Waterford wins, Sligo takes a point, and Galway loses, Galway will be in the play-off. Sligo is hoping for a changed Shamrock Rovers lineup, but given Bradley's strong squad, it's a tall order to get a result.
Matt Healy, Dylan Watts, and Graham Burke, who were substitutes last Wednesday, may start. They made a difference coming off the bench against Galway, but Bradley could also rest key players, knowing he has a Conference game in Athens and an FAI Cup final coming up.
To sum up the scenarios:
- Waterford FC will be in the play-off if they lose.
- Sligo Rovers will be in the play-off if they lose and Waterford FC fails to win.
- Galway United will be in the play-off if they lose and Sligo Rovers avoid defeat.
Nerves will be frayed in all three camps as Saturday afternoon approaches.
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